Holocene peatland development and hydrological variability inferred from bog‐pine dendrochronology and peat stratigraphy – a case study from southern Sweden     

Johannes Edvardsson  Hans Linderson  Mats Rundgren  Dan Hammarlund 《第四纪科学杂志》2012,27(6):553-563

Dendrochronological analysis was applied to subfossil remains of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) buried in a South Swedish peat deposit. In combination with peat stratigraphy, this approach was explored for its potential to provide information on the local hydrological and depositional history at the site, forming the basis for a regional palaeohydrological analysis. A 726‐year ring‐width chronology was developed and assigned an absolute age of 7233–6508 cal a BP (5284–4559 BC) through cross‐dating with German bog‐pine chronologies, whereas two short additional records of older ages were radiocarbon dated. Registration of growth positions of individual trees allowed assessment of the spatial dynamics of the pine population in response to hydrological changes and peatland ontogeny. Annually resolved growth variability patterns in the pine population reveal several establishment and degeneration phases, probably reflecting fluctuations in bog‐surface wetness. A major establishment phase at 7200–6900 cal a BP reflects the onset of a period of lowered groundwater level, also indicated by increased peat humification, and a development consistent with regional temperature and lake level reconstructions revealed from other proxies. This study demonstrates that subfossil bog‐pine populations may provide annually to decadally resolved reconstructions of local groundwater variability, which are highly relevant in a long‐term palaeoclimatic context. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Assessing uncertainties in a conceptual water balance model using Bayesian methodology / Estimation bayésienne des incertitudes au sein d’une modélisation conceptuelle de bilan hydrologique     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1)

Abstract

Abstract The aim of this study was to estimate the uncertainties in the streamflow simulated by a rainfall–runoff model. Two sources of uncertainties in hydrological modelling were considered: the uncertainties in model parameters and those in model structure. The uncertainties were calculated by Bayesian statistics, and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was used to simulate the posterior parameter distribution. The parameter uncertainty calculated by the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was compared to maximum likelihood estimates which assume that both the parameters and model residuals are normally distributed. The study was performed using the model WASMOD on 25 basins in central Sweden. Confidence intervals in the simulated discharge due to the parameter uncertainty and the total uncertainty were calculated. The results indicate that (a) the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and the maximum likelihood method give almost identical estimates concerning the parameter uncertainty, and (b) the uncertainties in the simulated streamflow due to the parameter uncertainty are less important than uncertainties originating from other sources for this simple model with fewer parameters.  相似文献   

Surface Elevation Distribution of Sea Waves Based on the Maximum Entropy Principle     

DAI Dejun 《中国海洋工程》2001,(2):217-228

A probability density function of surface elevation is obtained through improvement of the method introduced by Cieslikiewicz who employed the maximum entropy principle to investigate the surface elevation distribution. The density function can be easily extended to higher order according to demand and is non-negative everywhere, satisfying the basic behavior of the probability. Moreover because the distribution is derived without any assumption about sea waves, it is found from comparison with several accepted distributions that the new form of distribution can be applied in a wider range of wave conditions. In addition, the density function can be used to fit some observed distributions of surface vertical acceleration although something remains unsolved.  相似文献   

鸭绿江洪季的河口最大混浊带   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

金惜三  李炎 《海洋学研究》2001,19(1):1-10

对 1 994年 8月在鸭绿江河口的水文和悬浮泥沙的观测资料进行分析。结果表明 ,在洪季鸭绿江河口的最大混浊带 ,出现在第一个河口锋面内侧。它的核心处盐度小于 1 ,从上游带入河口的细颗粒泥沙多数被河口第一锋面截留 ,还有一部分上游来沙穿过该锋面 ,聚集在河口第一和第二锋面之间。垂向密度环流作用和絮凝作用在鸭绿江洪季最大混浊带的维持过程中起着主导作用  相似文献   

长江口枯季悬沙粒度与浓度之间的关系   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

王爱军  汪亚平  高抒  潘少明 《海洋科学进展》2005,23(2):159-167

2003和2004年枯季在长江口采集水样并作水文观测，对所获水样进行过滤和粒度分析，以计算悬沙浓度和悬沙粒度分布。结果表明，2003年11月小潮期间，悬沙中值粒径与悬沙浓度存在着显著的指数关系，在大潮期间没有显著关系；在2004年2月小湖期间，两者之间没有显著关系，但在大潮期间存在着显著的指数关系。枯季水体悬沙以粉砂组份为主，并且随着向口外的推移，细颗粒组份逐渐增加，但在拦门沙最大浑浊带附近，由于絮凝作用，沉积物粒度变幅较大，可产生粒径粗化的现象。小潮期间，砂含量较低，但与悬沙浓度之间有显著相关关系；大潮期间，悬沙粒径粗化，但砂含量与悬沙浓度之间的关系不显著。上述分布趋势与沉积物来源、当地的水动力条件和絮凝作用等因素有密切关系。  相似文献   

花鲈、许氏平鲉游泳能力的初步实验研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

井爱国  张秀梅  李文涛 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2005,35(6):973-976

实验利用小型海水循环水槽测定了花鲈（Lateolabrax maculatus）、许氏平（鱼由）（Sebastes schlegeli）的最大巡航（可持续）游泳速度.体长18～29cm的花鲈,其最大巡航游泳速度为41.1～127.37cm/s,如用单位时间内游过体长的倍数（BL/s）来表示,其最大巡航游泳速度范围在2.28～4.74BL/s之间.体长10～14.5cm的许氏平（鱼由）,其最大巡航游泳速度为36.90～49.52cm/s或4.32～3.01BL/s.  相似文献   

一种优化模糊度搜索方法的研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

刘立龙  文鸿雁  唐诗华 《海洋测绘》2006,26(1):37-39,53

对于高精度测量和导航,GPS载波相位整周模糊度的快速求解仍然是一个难点,尤其对于单频接收机。提出一种快速求解整周模糊度的方法,其基本思想采用分步求解,首先应用最小二乘模糊去耦调节法(LAMBDA)搜索出来的模糊度作为初始值,然后应用卫星分组方法降低搜索维数,并应用极大似然准则,构造搜索函数,最后应用最优化原理,搜索出最优的模糊度参数,并从三个方面对其进行检验,即RATIO检验,OVT检验,多项式拟合残差检验。为验证该算法,我们用单频GPS接收机进行了实验,利用本文方法在11 S以内正确确定了模糊度,其基线长误差小于3MM,表明该方法不但可以改进模糊度的搜索速度,而且可以进一步提高其可靠性和成功率。该方法可广泛应用于定向及姿态测量。  相似文献   

高压水射流与潜水员水下作业安全研究     

张国光 《海洋工程》2006,24(3):113-118

从高压水射流技术在水下工程中应用及高压水射流的作用效应和伤害特征着手,分析影响水下高压水射流作业安全的因素,总结各国制订高压水射流作业的安全标准规程现状,提出制订我国水下高压水射流作业安全规程若干认识和设想。  相似文献   

波浪物理模型试验中风速比尺确定方法初探     

唐筱宁  夏运强  杨洪旗  贾友海 《海岸工程》2006,25(1):1-5

在波浪模型试验中研究风对构筑物的作用时,会涉及到风速比尺的确定问题。风对构筑物的作用力包括惯性力和粘滞力,这2种力的大小与建筑物的形态有关,对有的构筑物的作用力以惯性力为主,有的则以粘滞力为主。所以,在波浪物理模型试验中不能简单地采用重力相似准则也不能采用粘滞力相似准则来确定风速比尺。根据大量的试验研究结果,提出了采用不同模型比尺的船舶模型试验来确定风速比尺的方法,为波浪模型试验中风场模拟和数据处理提供了依据。  相似文献   

近海工程环境应用中各种风资料的平均时间分析   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

吴增茂  孙士才 《海岸工程》1995,14(3):8-12

本文从近海工程设计应用的需要出发，对于通常使用的不同来源的测风资料平均时间进行了分析，这些资料来源包括：岸边及近海探查与生产设施上的气象台站、天气观测船、浮标、商船气象报、从受灾情况估计出的极大风速以及动力诊断模型估计出的海面风速。  相似文献